FDS Research › Tools
Many factors determine how far off a skydiver's estimate of altitude can be and still be considered acceptable, for example: the planned altitudes, where a jumper is within the jump, how fast they are falling, the availability of opportunities to check altitude, whether they are using an AAD, who else is in the air, and what they and the people around them consider acceptable. The chart draws one skydive from exit to landing: the solid line is the jumper’s actual altitude, and the shaded tolerance envelope around it shows the tolerance profile T(A)—the range of estimates that would still allow every future action to be completed safely and acceptably. Above the line the envelope is narrow, because believing yourself higher than you are means acting late; below it the envelope is wider, because acting early costs less—mostly working time, and other people’s plans for the jump—or can even work to a jumper's benefit. The envelope tightens into each threshold—breakoff, deployment, decision altitude, the pattern turns—and changes once each has passed, usually opening up again. The envelope is drawn for one hypothetical jump, a four-way belly jump from 13,000 ft that goes as planned, and its values are those reasoned through in FDS’s theory of skydiving altitude awareness and indication. On a real jump the envelope changes in real time, as things happen: Show a bag lock draws a jump that does not go as planned. You can also show a jumper: set how often they check their altimeter and when they become absorbed (task fixation), and watch the estimate drift between checks and, if it drifts far enough, escape the envelope, indicating a lapse in altitude awareness.
The jumper. With a jumper shown, an estimation band traces what they believe: the spread of answers you would get if you could ask them their altitude repeatedly. Its middle is their most likely answer, its width their uncertainty, and its opacity how salient altitude is to them, fading as it slips from mind. While a jumper is shown, the envelope turns gray and the band takes on its colors: green near the actual altitude, orange toward the dangerous limit, red beyond it. Each check corrects the estimate, snapping the band back onto the line. Between checks this jumper’s estimate drifts toward the high side, as it tends to when a jumper is absorbed and time seems to fly (a frightened jumper’s can drift the other way). A lapse is the band leaving the envelope on the high side; the readout below the chart says where the late check comes, and how far below the planned breakoff.
What jumpers say. The violet points come from FDS’s Altitude Tolerance Survey, which asked skydivers to judge deviations on one fully specified jump—specifically the jump drawn here. Each point marks where judgments, on average, reach “borderline”, with a bar for its 95% range; the short line beside it is the model’s value. Compare the point with that line, not with the envelope’s edge, which jumps at every threshold.
Freefall and canopy. Freefall approaches a belly-to-earth terminal velocity of about 120 mph, and for simplicity the jumper tracks at about the same speed after breakoff (in reality fall rate in a good track is slower than belly); the canopy opens over about 6 seconds before descending at about 15 ft/s—constant for simplicity. The time axis gives freefall extra width, and the landing pattern, or the bag lock, is enlarged in an inset. Every number here is a model, not a measurement.
This is not to be taken as a recommendation for a jump. Nothing here is a substitute for proper training by certified instructors. See the United States Parachute Association’s Skydiver’s Information Manual, whose minimum breakoff, container opening and decision altitudes this page uses.